Covid-19

[retired jerry]

That's the problem with data. Especially with covid, there's a lot of uncertainty. As soon as you post something new data will occur that somewhat contradicts it.

Still, I think there is some validity, and you can still draw conclusions. You have to be flexible, when new data comes along adapt to it

Bottom line - social distancing is starting to work, if we didn't, covid would grow to an unimaginable level

[drm]

You can never get great statistics in the middle of a crisis. After it ends, they can use various statistical and epidemiological methods to get close to the actual numbers. For now, it is the trends that are more important than the actual magnitude of the numbers.

[Webfoot]

The trajectory is unchanged. We are still on course to pass 50,000 cumulative dead in the United States on the 9th of April.

It appears the acceleration is finally slowing. The current trajectory now hits 50,000 cumulative on the 13th. I hope we can do better than that.

Continuing my report of the simple trajectory—not a model—the United States now passes 50,000 cumulative dead on the 18th. I had hoped for better, as Italy had flattened their curve to a greater degree at the same number of days since their first death. I wish the rest of the States were doing as well as we are in Oregon. Press on.

[Webfoot]

A recent change in reporting complicates simple extrapolations. After a first order approximation of propagating an additional 4059 probable COVID-19 deaths back through the daily totals, data through this evening produces a simple trajectory that passes 50,000 cumulative dead in the US on the 21st of April, and 100,000 on the 30th.

[Webfoot]

A tentatively optimistic observation: the dead per day in the United States has within reasonable error been level since April 6th. We may have existed the growth phase of the first wave. If we can even hold this level it would push 100,000 cumulative out to May 16th.

[BurnsideBob]

As of today, 22 April 2020, the first known US fatality occurred 6 February 2020 in Santa Clara County, California. It is believed this was a case of community transmission indicating the virus was circulating in January. Press release here: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pa ... early.aspx

It is now believed that asymptomatic people--people without a cough or fever or shortness of breath--are the primary means of transmission. Of the 600 sailors testing positive on the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, 360 were asymptomatic at the time of the test. Great review article here: https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00420.html

Forensic genetics suggest that Wuhan, China was not the origin of the pandemic. Most Wuhan cases are identified as "strain B". "Strain B" is a genetic mutation of the original virus, "Strain A". Most European cases are found to be "Strain C", a mutation of "Strain B". The geographic origin of "Strain A" has yet to be identified. Cambridge University study announcement and results summary here: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/cov ... ic-origins



None of the states currently liberalizing their shelter-in-place orders have met the phase one guideline requirement of decreasing case loads for 14 days. None of the studies looking into antibodies indicate more than 4% of population has them. Currently estimated that 60% infection rate required for 'herd immunity' to reduce rate of transmission.

Went to town (Silverton) yesterday to drop off mail, including payments for health insurance. Lots of people on the roads, at stores, socializing in small groups, no one wearing masks. Maybe better compliance where you are?


Prediction. First wave is going to fade more slowly than people currently anticipate. A second wave seems likely. Stay safe, be prepared.

[justpeachy]

Prediction. First wave is going to fade more slowly than people currently anticipate. A second wave seems likely. Stay safe, be prepared.

Read this article a few days ago and it paints a disheartening picture of what to expect.

The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heal ... uture.html

[Aimless]

Among experts there has never been any pretense that the drastic measures we are currently obliged to take were going to do anything more than buy time for a worldwide push to catch up with events, to identify and address shortages in equipment, tests and medications, to compile data and acquire knowledge that could lead to better treatment strategies and less draconian management of the social and economic risks, and finally to produce the world's first effective vaccine against a coronavirus variant. In the meantime, nothing hinders the virus from spreading other than basic hygiene and reducing physical proximity to a minimum. Once you are infected very little can be done for you but wait to see how your symptoms manifest.

I only wish I were more confident that the US government was making good use of the time we've all bought at such a high price. As far as I understand the administration's efforts, they expect the states to address the shortfall in testing with almost no assistance from the federal government, and almost no use has been made of the president's emergency powers to compel the manufacture of PPE, ventilators, hand sanitizer, or other vital equipment and supplies. Coordinated plans for the next two to six months are being made piecemeal, by ad hoc consortiums of states. There is no national planning that I can see, not even a centralized 'switchboard' for all 50 states to share ideas. The lack of leadership from the central executive during this crisis has been extremely disheartening.

[Webfoot]

The trajectory is unchanged. We are still on course to pass 50,000 cumulative dead in the United States on the 9th of April.

The United States passed 50,000 COVID-19 deaths today, April 23rd. Our efforts as a nation bought us two weeks over what could have been, keeping hospitals from being completely overwhelmed and providing vital time for medical professionals to be better equipped and prepared. Average deaths per day are holding at about 2,200. I hope we can start to reduce them as new treatments and practices are applied.

[justpeachy]

Governor Brown has extended the state of emergency until July 6. Surely that date (the Monday after the 4th of July weekend) is not a coincidence, although it will be interesting to see how they plan to keep people from going out and gathering/recreating that weekend. The new order "allows Brown to terminate it earlier than that if deemed appropriate," so I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens.