Covid-19

General discussions on hiking in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest
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Chip Down
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Chip Down » April 5th, 2020, 2:15 pm

retired jerry wrote:
April 4th, 2020, 6:40 am
light at end of tunnel

Since oregon implemented stay at home new cases seem to be dropping:

ornew.jpg
Sorry, I'm not seeing it. To me it looks all over the place. In particular, if we remove 3/27, there's really no discernible improvement. My point is, if you're seeing a trend that depends on a single data point, it's not very strong. But with new data added every day, maybe we'll see an irrefutable trend soon.

Aimless
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Aimless » April 5th, 2020, 3:22 pm

retired jerry wrote:
April 4th, 2020, 7:20 am
yeah, if anything we should be better and get this over as soon as possible, there are still new cases happening
What I understand from listening to or reading the public health and epidemic experts is that we should expect that new cases will continue to happen right along for another year at least. The most we can do is suppress the rate of speed at which the virus moves. Theoretically, if we all locked ourselves in our homes and didn't emerge for at least a couple of weeks, and all new cases could be identified and isolated, including use of effective PPE for all caregivers, then transmission from person to person could be stopped. But then you'd have to draw a cordon around the state and not let anyone in, or the virus would return. That is not going to happen.

The best case that seems achievable is that through intensive distancing the transmission is slowed down, we keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed so the worst cases get complete ICU care, leading to the highest achievable recovery rate (though many will still die), and the overall percentage of the population that is infected is held down until widespread testing is possible and more detailed strategies can be put in place, and finally a vaccine arrives. As it surely will.

This 'best' case is not pretty to think about, but the worst case is so much worse that making extended sacrifices to avoid it is far preferable to letting the virus burn through the whole state or nation unhindered. :cry:

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » April 5th, 2020, 4:51 pm

Chip, I agree its bouncing around. If you statistically analyzed it there's a slight downward trend. At least it's not going up. Let's see how it looks in another week

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » April 5th, 2020, 5:00 pm

Aimless, if we just reduce the R0 to less than 1, then the new cases will drop, eventually to zero. Social distancing. If R0 is smaller, new cases will drop faster. In oregon and Washington we are just barely less than 1. But a lot of uncertainty.

Then, there will be no contagious people internally so no new cases.

Then, just focus on infected people coming into the state.

But there's so much immigration from other states, you really have to do that on a national level to work.

That's what happened in china.

Aimless
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Aimless » April 5th, 2020, 6:08 pm

retired jerry wrote:
April 5th, 2020, 5:00 pm
Aimless, if we just reduce the R0 to less than 1, then the new cases will drop, eventually to zero.
I quite agree, but "if" and "eventually" are doing some heavy lifting in that statement. ;)

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » April 5th, 2020, 7:46 pm

Yeah, I agree, the number of daily new cases is barely dropping

Let's see what it looks like a week from now.

New york and the rest of the country - new cases per day is rising. Also, its rising from a bigger number. Thank goodness were not that

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 6th, 2020, 1:49 am

Taking the United States as a whole progress is being made regarding the rate of death that might not be apparent from a glance at the numbers. Here is a chart of the average growth rate over five day windows, calculated daily. Data are normalized such that 0.2 represents 20% of the previous total died on that day. We need to keep improving this.

bar-graph April 6th.png


For comparison here is the same chart for Italy. Of course things are still bad there but they are winning the fight.

bar-graph Italy April 6th.png

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » April 6th, 2020, 8:11 am

If you statistically analyze it, there was a slight downward trend in new daily cases in Oregon in that plot

After I posted that, the next two days were 100 and 69. Now there's a slight upward trend.

At least it's not going significantly up and the hospitals are nowhere near capacity

I see Washington now released 400 ventilators back to FEMA for other worse states

Let's continue to observe social distancing :)

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 6th, 2020, 1:57 pm


Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 7th, 2020, 12:16 am

The numbers I charted above are not complete.
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

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