Covid-19

General discussions on hiking in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest
Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 1st, 2020, 11:39 pm

Webfoot wrote:
March 27th, 2020, 8:07 pm
The trajectory is unchanged. We are still on course to pass 50,000 cumulative dead in the United States on the 9th of April.
It appears the acceleration is finally slowing. The current trajectory now hits 50,000 cumulative on the 13th. I hope we can do better than that.
Last edited by Webfoot on April 2nd, 2020, 5:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » April 2nd, 2020, 5:04 am

Don't jinx things by declaring victory prematurely :)

Keep focusing on social distancing - it would be easy to be lax and have it blow up

It's nice we were able to do stay at home without having to have things get so bad. My good wishes are going out to other places like New York and New Jersey.

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 2nd, 2020, 5:35 am

retired jerry wrote:
April 2nd, 2020, 5:04 am
Don't jinx things by declaring victory prematurely :)
Hardly. This is going to be a long haul unless someone discovers a "silver bullet." On the current trajectory we will still pass one million dead before the end of the month. Keep bending the curve.

This video interview provides some perspective on what to expect in the coming months.

Coronvirus (COVID-19) Update: What To Expect Into Summer and Fall 2020 — JAMA Network

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Water
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Water » April 2nd, 2020, 10:34 am

removed
Last edited by Water on May 6th, 2020, 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RobFromRedland
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Re: Covid-19

Post by RobFromRedland » April 2nd, 2020, 3:42 pm

This:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Shows a projection of just over 93,000 deaths by August 4th. It shows things essentially going to zero by July 1st. I would expect a resurgence come fall, however.
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention to arrive safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming: WOW-What a ride!

Aimless
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Aimless » April 2nd, 2020, 4:16 pm

Webfoot wrote:
April 2nd, 2020, 5:35 am
On the current trajectory we will still pass one million dead before the end of the month.
I'm not clear if by "we" you meant Oregon, the USA, or the planet Earth. That number does seem to apply more to the worldwide situation, so until clarification, I'll temporarily assume "planet Earth". Also, a "trajectory" doesn't really describe a projection or a model very well. It's pretty easy to accidentally mischaracterize a source. Do you have a link?

I did watch the video you linked and it had some helpful information and perspective. Mainly the likelihood that this pandemic will have a second or third wave, but these may be smaller than the initial one we are still in the process of entering now.

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 2nd, 2020, 5:57 pm

Water wrote:
April 2nd, 2020, 10:34 am
Webfoot wrote:
April 2nd, 2020, 5:35 am
...pass one million dead before the end of the month.
:?: dead or infected :?:
Aimless wrote:
April 2nd, 2020, 4:16 pm
I'm not clear if by "we" you meant Oregon, the USA, or the planet Earth.

Dead, in the United States. That is the rate of exponential growth. This is why measures such as social distancing are vital. The current trajectory (seeded roughly 20 days ago) is unacceptable.

In reality there is an upper limit to exponential growth due to the population of presumed-immune survivors and the total population, forming a logistic curve, but sadly one million dead is well below the capacity of this disease in the event of a completely collapsed healthcare system. Nevertheless this is why I did not mention projections this far out until it was suggested that I might be declaring victory over this scourge.

Here is the simple arithmetic. Total dead on the 28th of March: 2,220, and on the 2nd of April: 6,070, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, gives us the growth rate over those five days:

(6070/2220)^(1/5) = 1.2228

Exponentiating this base to a number of days gives us a projected growth which can be multiplied by the current total for a projected total. For example projecting eleven days out to the 13th of April:

6070 * 1.2228^11 = 55,475
Last edited by Webfoot on April 2nd, 2020, 7:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 2nd, 2020, 5:58 pm

Trend line graph removed. I don't want it to mislead anyone through misinterpretation.
Last edited by Webfoot on April 3rd, 2020, 9:02 am, edited 2 times in total.

Aimless
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Aimless » April 2nd, 2020, 7:58 pm

I see the math you are using and the data you're starting with, but simply projecting a trend line into the future is a fairly unsophisticated and probably misleading model. For example, if you had applied such an analysis to the stock market indices using the trend lines established from 1/1/2020 until 2/15/2020, you'd have already celebrated a DJIA over 30,000 and be looking ahead to it soon breaking 31,000. The epidemiological experts in this subject matter know they lack sufficiently complete and granular data to make very accurate models, but your number of one million US dead before April 30 does not jibe with any of the estimates I've yet seen from experts.

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » April 2nd, 2020, 8:10 pm

Aimless, I agree, which is why I did not project that far initially, and only described this as a current trajectory rather than a model. Nevertheless if no measures at all were taken to slow the spread, personally or administratively, this is the growth rate that would continue until "herd immunity" slowed it. (With a heathcare system collapse this would happen after the point that one million were dead.) This is the worst case scenario away from which we must bend the curve.

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