Covid-19

General discussions on hiking in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest
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adamschneider
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Re: Covid-19

Post by adamschneider » March 16th, 2020, 2:19 pm

It seems like there are two big differences between this and a typical flu outbreak:

1) A huge number of people infected with coronavirus are asymptomatic (or presymptomatic) but still contagious; we have no idea exactly what proportion yet, but it's the only way to explain the way that it's been spreading. [citation]

2) It seems to have a much higher fatality rate than the flu.

Multiply #1 by #2, and you've got trouble.

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » March 16th, 2020, 3:07 pm

The difference is that with covid-19, 15% of the cases cause pneumonia. 1/3 of those require a ventilator or you'll die.

If too many people are infected, it exceeds the capacity of hospitals. They have to decide who lives and who dies. Working conditions for hospital workers are horrendous because they have to wear protective gear and they're overwhelmed.

This is what happened in China and Italy. At that point they realized the crisis and implemented extreme measures. Quarantine. Social distancing is a nice name for it, less extreme.

In China, a week or so after they implemented social distancing, the number of new cases peaked, then steeply dropped. After a while the people in the hospitals got better or died, and the numbers dropped. China built those extra hospitals, but now they're closing them because they're not needed.

In Italy they haven't quite reached that peak yet.

We have the benefit of China and Italy's experience. We can implement social distancing. A week or so later the number of new cases will peak, then steeply decline. Without ever exceeding the capacity of hospitals and having those horrendous overwhelm conditions.

We've made a lot of good steps, probably not quite enough yet.

Too bad we don't have enough testing. Then we'd know if the number of new cases peaks or we need to do more extreme social distancing.

Stay 6 feet away from other people

If you touch anything that other people could have touched or sneezed on, don't touch your face until you wash your hands

It's not to protect you, it will probably be mild, no big deal, it's to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.

Aimless
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Aimless » March 16th, 2020, 3:15 pm

The biggest difference between a flu epidemic and this pandemic is that, between flu vaccinations and acquired immunity in the general population, the flu virus' opportunities to spread are limited. Unlike bacteria, viruses cannot reproduce outside of the cells provided by their hosts. The fewer available hosts, the more likely the chain of transmission will break. With COVID-19, the entire human population of earth has no immunity and therefore are 'available hosts' (except those who've already had it). The potential chain of transmission is effectively limitless. That's how pandemics happen.

Yet another important consideration between COVID-19 and flu is that doctors and nurses almost 100% get vaccinated against the flu and therefore can treat flu patients with minimal risk of infection. With no vaccine available, those who care for the sickest COVID-19 patients must use protective clothing and masks, which are difficult to use, require training and caution, and still not entirely effective. Those gowns and masks are in short supply, too. The danger that many doctors and nurses will become too ill to perform their jobs is very much on the minds of the public health authorities.

All these closures and 'stay home' recommendations are attempts to slow down the spread, by stubbing off each potential transmission chain to be as short as possible. This buys time to ramp up the necessary research and to fill up the distribution supply lines with protective gear, saline solution, and whatever drugs or other supplies will be necessary to save lives. This is already a global problem and the strain on the global supply system will be acute. Experts are saying the pandemic won't reach its peak for months.

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teachpdx
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Re: Covid-19

Post by teachpdx » March 16th, 2020, 3:22 pm

It's also multitudes deadlier as age increases. Among the general population, it's currently 10-30 times deadlier than the normal flu. Even though younger people like me can get it and probably have an easy go of it, it's my responsibility to help curb the spread so fewer older people get it. And preventing older people from getting it keeps hospital capacity for non-Covid things that happen to everybody.
If all the ICU doctors and equipment are being maxed out by Covid, what happens to the folks with heart attacks, strokes, car accidents? There are many indirect deaths currently happening in Italy because the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid. The only way to do this is for everybody, young and old, to practice maximum social distancing. Keep 6' clear from everybody who isn't a part of your household, and don't leave home at all if you are sick... if we can do this for 4-8 weeks we may be able to hold back the worst of it.

As was said earlier, act as though anybody outside your home is contagious.
And at the same time, act as though you are the contagious one and everybody else is healthy. Don't be the person getting others sick before you show symptoms.

Just a little math: Let's say that we don't take this seriously and 25% of the US gets infected (current estimates at 20-70% without action). That's 83 million people. 16% of those people are 65+... that's 13 million people. Now if only 10% of them need breathing support with a ventilator, that's 1.3 million people. The latest figures show that the US only has between 70,000 and 100,000 ventilators. That's between 13-18 patients who need a ventilator per available ventilator (not counting anybody who needs one without Covid), and every doctor and hospital making impossible decisions about who lives and who dies. These numbers are all at the low end of the spectrum, the reality could be much worse if we don't act strongly, right now.

It's the perfect time to hit the trail and ignore society completely!
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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » March 17th, 2020, 5:34 am

thankyou teachpdx. I'm 66, one of the ones more at risk. I appreciate you reducing the risk of me getting it.

those suits that hospital workers have to use are miserable to work in. sweaty. Since they're in short supply they have to wear them for extended period without taking off

that basketball player on the news said he tested positive, but he didn't even know he was sick, the symptoms were so mild, yeah, assume everyone is infected

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drm
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Re: Covid-19

Post by drm » March 17th, 2020, 6:27 am

So basically what we have to do is shut our economy down. Except for those fields we need: health care, first responders, utilities, food production and distribution. And of course, everything that makes TV function, since we aren't going to be reading 18 hours a day. In economics, everything is about how to get the economy going if something shuts it down. Now we are intentionally shutting it down and we have zero experience with this. Tens of millions live paycheck to paycheck. How will they eat? Avoid eviction or foreclosure?

Of course there have been many pandemics throughout history and for the bad ones, they were followed by famine since either there wasn't enough people to grow food (which required almost everybody) or at least they missed a planting season. We won't face that kind of shortage in the US, but there are many other challenges instead. The irony is that in order to save our heath care system, and our lives, we are flattening the curve, which could make the economic pain last longer.

Stay tuned . . .

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » March 17th, 2020, 6:43 am

maybe the extreme measures will flatten the curve, and also affect the economy sooner, but long term, the economy will be affected about the same regardless

maybe some businesses could switch to making critical supplies.

There's also the supply chain for everything. Farmers need to continue farming, food processors processing,... It must be possible to continue processing food while maintaining social distancing

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retired jerry
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Re: Covid-19

Post by retired jerry » March 17th, 2020, 6:49 am

hopefully, the people making toilet paper will continue working :)

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teachpdx
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Re: Covid-19

Post by teachpdx » March 17th, 2020, 6:53 am

This is the most clear and concise explanation I have seen on the importance of social distancing and how it can affect the number of cases:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... tid=pm_pop

It clearly shows the huge differences between doing nothing, quarantines (which don't work nearly as well as they sound), and different degrees of social distancing.

It's all exponential. Once that curve starts to run away, there's really nothing we can do.
instagram: @remyodyssey

Webfoot
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Webfoot » March 17th, 2020, 7:25 am

BigBear wrote:
March 16th, 2020, 11:44 am
Still not sure how this virus differs from a flu outbreak.
Compared to H1N1/09, SARS-CoV-2 has roughly twice the incubation period, requires three times the length of critical care, and survives on surfaces for days instead of hours. These are compounding factors that combine with a much higher case fatality rate.

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