Covid-19

[jessbee]

So, the Gorge, State Parks, and 46 million acres are closed. But what I witnessed today, in town, was terrible. Trying to "fix" a problem by closing so many trailheads really dumps people into dense areas in town, and popular BLM areas. Not sure it was a good call to close so much.

The thing is no matter how much is closed and open, people exhibit the same behavior: they pile into the well known trailheads. If a parking lot is full, they park and hike there anyways. They are oblivious to other people and don't care about what's going on in the world. They brag about how much of a badass they are for ignoring the rules. Unfortunately, suggesting being a mindful person doesn't change traffic flow, only shutting things down and saying NO like you're dealing with a toddler had an impact.

I hiked all over Bend both days this weekend and the only place I really saw crowds of people was on the River Trail. That's it. And it was packed (we only had to get on it for a couple minutes to make a connection back to the streets).

I also know of some great BLM options to go hiking and I'm planning on going there later this week. I sure as hell am not going to post pictures or publicly announce where everyone can go hiking. Because then those places will get packed and shut down!

I think a thoughtful human who wants to get out and hike just needs to pick up a local map, search for some options and use their heads when they get there. Parking lot full? Trail crowded? It's not your day. If it's empty, go get it. Enjoy your hike and shut up about it. Share pictures from one of a million hikes you've done in the past, dream about the next time you can explore those closed places.

[drm]

Unfortunately, for those of us who plan our excursions based on wildflowers, the timing couldn't have been much worse.

(If only this could have started in October!)

Yes, always going to be some groups inconvenienced. Same as I said for those who like the late season snow.

There will be wildflowers in the summer in the alpine. Now if we could only get mosquitoes to do physical distancing.

A. Hugh Jass - Unfortunately most people just don't tend to spread out given the opportunity. They want to go to their favorite spot again and again, no matter the crowds or whatever. So if that keeps happening, the response will be greater tightening.

The Riverfront Tail in The Dalles is still open. It's six feet wide most of the way. And this time of year we have west winds so it isn't always the most pleasant experience. I was out there yesterday and not too many people. Not sure what will happen when we start getting calm 70 deg days.

[justpeachy]

He hikers, look at the bright side (which we need to find these days) - this didn't happen in summer. Nobody knows when things will reopen, but good chance it will be right around when the snowmelt is in high gear and the high country is opening. Yeah, some of us like to get out there early when there is still some snow. But being stuck inside, or stuck in town, during the sunny summer would be far worse for most of us.

I'm not getting my hopes up that trails will be open this summer. Even if we flatten the curve (which is still not a guarantee), experts are warning that people can't get complacent after that and return to normal life or else we could a second wave. It sounds extreme and I don't know how we could possibly make it this long, but some are saying that we might need to practice some form physical distancing until a vaccine is widely available, which is 12-18 months.

[drm]

Emphasis on some form of physical distancing. For most people, getting out in the summer means a music festival where hundreds of thousands of people crowd into a large park. Those might still be on hold. In some form this disease event will be with us for a long time, but the closures are to get past the overwhelming of our health care facilities. I think every state in the union is seeing increasing numbers now. But once we pass the peak and new cases and mortality are declining, it will be time to open up. That is what I've seen from the experts. Open up doesn't mean 100% normal. Like you say, some forms of caution will still be called for. But I don't expect the status quo through summer. Most estimates I've see range between early May to late June.

Note that if we don't succeed in flattening the curve, it ends a bit sooner, just with a lot more suffering and death as the cost.

[retired jerry]

In China they are starting to open malls with social distancing.

Maybe that's what we have to look forward to, limited return to normalcy.

Continued surveillance - expect it to flare up again and re-tighten.

There are trials for several treatments including that malaria treatment. Likely they will identify something that's effective. If there's a better way to treat the severe symptoms that now require a ventilator, that would totally change things. Still some social distancing but more like a regular flu. Maybe in a few months or a year.

Hiking would be easy to do practicing social distancing.

[retired jerry]

I've already done my March backpack. I got back home March 1.

Maybe I can start my April backpack April 30

[BurnsideBob]

Maybe that's what we have to look forward to, limited return to normalcy.

In some ways we are in the same position as our great-grand parents were with the Spanish Flu 1918-1919.

Then, as now, there was no national policy regarding social distancing. States and cities were left on their own to implement social distancing. The result was a hodge podge that brought variable results. National Geographic has published an article with graphics showing how the Spanish Flu incidence changed with the imposition of social distancing in about 25 U. S. Cities, including Portland, OR.

The article is here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/hist ... ronavirus/

Sad that 100 years after the Spanish Flu killed 675,000 americans--more than World War I and World War II combined--we don't seem to have learned from that experience.

Stay home and stay healthy!

Burnside

[drm]

Folks should check out this page: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
and choose Oregon from the dropdown. These are projections on the peak in each state from UW. I think a later peak is considered good because it means more curve flattening. The median projection for Oregon is a peak in early May and for demands for hospital beds to be met. Michigan and Louisiana will peak much earlier and overshoot their resources.

Those are median numbers. Note that their median nationwide death toll, about 81,000, is well below a lot of what we are hearing. So numbers above the median (the dashed lines of various colors) should not be discounted.

[BurnsideBob]

Dean!

Thanks for sharing. Good catch.

Hopefully this model will be updated frequently.

Burnside

[RobFromRedland]

That is a great site. Very interesting projections. It shows (at least for Oregon) that this will be "done" by early July. I hope that projects turns out to be true. I'm sure it will rear its head again in the fall, just like the normal flu, though.

We are all living history right now, folks!