The timing of actual winter

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BurnsideBob
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by BurnsideBob » December 29th, 2021, 10:19 pm

drm wrote:
December 28th, 2021, 9:02 am
By actual winter, I mean winter weather, not winter on the calendar. It seems like in the NW we get a few weeks or a month of winter weather each year and it can occur any time from December to early March.
Warning! Curmudgeon talk following.

Traditionally the seasons are defined as the time between a solstice and an equinox. To wit:
Winter--winter solstice to spring equinox.
Spring--spring equinox to summer solstice.
Summer--summer solstice to fall equinox.
Fall--fall equinox to winter solstice.

Meteorologists, realizing observed weather doesn't correspond with these traditionally defined seasons, consider meteorological seasons to begin and end one month (30 days) earlier. Meteorological winter, for example, begins about November 21 and ends about February 21.


Weather is what is happening outside right now.
Climate is the average of weather over a period of time, and the period over which meteorologists average weather is 30 years.
Climate change is the difference in the 30 year weather average when different 30 year periods are compared. Example, when U. S. weather averaged over the years 1961 to 1990 is compared to U. S. weather averaged over the years 1991 to 2020, the 1991 to 2020 average was warmer than the 1961 to 1990 period. So we say the climate is warming over this time period.

Because the climate is changing, every 10 years NOAA updates the 30 year period used to make statements about what is 'normal' weather. Each 10 year 'block' of weather data is called a "U. S. Climate Normal", and the 30 year period used to calculate 'normal' right now is 1 Jan 1991 thru 31 Dec 2020. When we roll into January 2031, the 30 year period used to make 'normal' comparisons will be updated to 1 Jan 2001 thru 31 Dec 2030.

Here is a NASA publication on the differences between 'weather' and 'climate': https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa ... ather.html

Here is a NOAA publication about the "U. S. Climate Normals" and their use in weather forecasting:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land ... te-normals


My New Years wish is that we have fewer extreme weather events in 2022--the June 2021 heat wave, the Feb 2021 ice storm, and the Sept 2020 foehn wind event (that blew up the fires) were all highly unusual.

Happy New Year to all!! Make a snowball while you can!

BurnsideBob
I keep making protein shakes but they always turn out like margaritas.

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jdemott
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by jdemott » December 30th, 2021, 8:34 am

My own, non-scientific, view of the seasons in the Portland area is that there are only three seasons:
Winter Storms--roughly from Halloween to Presidents Day
Spring Showers--roughly Presidents Day to July 4th
Summer Drought--the rest of the year

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drm
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by drm » December 30th, 2021, 8:41 am

Expanding on the issue of drought, there is meteorological drought - when precipitation is low, and ecological drought - when the ground is really dry. Meteorological drought plus more heat means worse ecological drought due to greater evaporation, and that's what wildlife and agriculture care about. When scientists are measuring droughts from before we took records, they are usually using tree rings, and tree roots care about ecological drought.

Winter backpacking - it's just too dark for me. It's cold too, but the many hours of dark are the biggest reason I don't do that.

Snowing pretty hard out here in TD this morning, heading out for a snowshoe in a little while.

As to Alaska this year:

Alaska sets record high December temperature of 19.4C
At the island community of Kodiak, the air temperature at a tidal gauge hit 19.4C (67F) degrees on Sunday, the highest December reading ever recorded in Alaska, said scientist Rick Thoman of the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy. He called it “absurd.”

The new benchmark high came amid a spate of balmy December extremes, Thoman said, including 18.3C (65F) at the Kodiak airport, a record 16.6C (62F) at the Alaska Peninsula community of Cold Bay and at least eight December days of temperatures above 10C (50F) at the Aleutian town of Unalaska, including a reading of 13.3C (56F) that was Alaska’s warmest Christmas Day on record.

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retired jerry
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by retired jerry » December 30th, 2021, 9:10 am

jdemot - that's a good summary

drm - there's about 9 hours of light in the winter. That's enough to hike as much as I like. Then, if I build a fire, that's another 3 hours plus if I get up when it's just barely getting light there's another hour in the morning. 13 hours total. I'll lie in my sleeping bag and listen to the radio for a couple hours and then there's 9 hours left to sleep.

I like the cold better because I can always put more clothes on to stay warm. When it's hot I can't take everything off so it's hot.

And there's almost no one else out. I went up Swift Creek in Trinity Alps and saw no one for 5 days. No cars at trailhead.

But the short days is a negative and it rains a lot. I can see how most people stay at home where it's warm and dry

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drm
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by drm » December 31st, 2021, 10:51 am

You need a fire in the evening (it gets dark at 4:30 and gets really cold when the sun goes behind a ridge much earlier - or maybe behind trees). Then you need one in the morning too because it is friggin' frigid then, and the sun won't actually be on you till 10.

And I'm just not that big a fan of fires. I do them a few times for spring or fall camping, but they make my clothes stink, embers make holes in the clothes, and you can't see the stars with the bright fire. And a lot of the time the wood is just going to be too wet to easily make a fire, since dry periods in winter are usually between wet periods. Most of my camp fires are car camping where I can bring the wood.

More power to you for spreading the usage, but for me the two equinoxes are pretty much the bookends for backpacking. And I find that despite having a lot of warm clothes for cold weather, I don't really enjoy being super bundled up. My fingers go numb quickly if I take the mittens off to do something and the coffee gets cold quickly. It's more an exercise in survival than it is fun. Warm season camping is fun. I went snowshoeing yesterday - then I went home for the dark.

Except for the lack of bugs - the one clear positive for camping in the cold.

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aiwetir
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by aiwetir » December 31st, 2021, 5:33 pm

Here's some historic data showing that the coldest weeks of the year are the 24 days around Christmas.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthd ... &year=2020
- Michael

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BurnsideBob
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by BurnsideBob » January 1st, 2022, 12:36 pm

jdemott wrote:
December 30th, 2021, 8:34 am
My own, non-scientific, view of the seasons in the Portland area is that there are only three seasons:
Winter Storms--roughly from Halloween to Presidents Day
Spring Showers--roughly Presidents Day to July 4th
Summer Drought--the rest of the year

John Muir, in his book My First Summer in the Sierra opines there are two seasons in California's Great Valley. Having grown up there, he's on to something. By the end of May the foothills are brown and baked.
Untitled.jpg


But for here, in Western Oregon jdmott and drm are right on. For people interested in the coldest temperature of the year in other parts, there is this:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/coldest-day-of-the-year

BurnsideBob
I keep making protein shakes but they always turn out like margaritas.

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Chip Down
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by Chip Down » January 1st, 2022, 2:50 pm

BurnsideBob wrote:
January 1st, 2022, 12:36 pm
For people interested in the coldest temperature of the year in other parts, there is this:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/coldest-day-of-the-year
Nice.
I'm aware that the lapse from solstice to coldest-average-day varies by region, but that map really displays it well. I don't understand why the coldest days are right around solstice, but the hottest days are 6 weeks after solstice (in portland and surroundings).

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retired jerry
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by retired jerry » January 1st, 2022, 3:05 pm

part of the answer

"In addition, areas with higher snowfall Normals, such as the Northeast and high-altitude regions in the West, tend to reach their climatological coldest day much later, which is likely because of the increased reflection of solar radiation at Earth’s surface due to the presence of snow cover."

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aiwetir
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Re: The timing of actual winter

Post by aiwetir » January 2nd, 2022, 11:34 pm

Now can someone tell me why the hottest time of day here in the summer is so late in the day? Most places I've lived it seems to be around 3:30, here it seems to be at lest 5:30
- Michael

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