240 people haven't returned from the Oregon woods since 1997

[Crusak]

Sad, troubling, disturbing. Seems to me that for people who do not want to die, accidents or foul play would be the main causes of their deaths. I've been hesitant to go solo hiking off-trail in some places in Oregon because I fear stumbling across an illegal activity of some kind.

I suppose this is a good reminder for all of us to travel well-armed in the backcountry- armed with compass, map, GPS and the knowledge to use them. (hand cannon optional, of course )

[BrianEdwards]

So if Gene finds a dead body, the first thing he's going for is the wallet, ID being the second priority

[Lurch]

Sad, troubling, disturbing. Seems to me that for people who do not want to die, accidents or foul play would be the main causes of their deaths. I've been hesitant to go solo hiking off-trail in some places in Oregon because I fear stumbling across an illegal activity of some kind.

I suppose this is a good reminder for all of us to travel well-armed in the backcountry- armed with compass, map, GPS and the knowledge to use them. (hand cannon optional, of course )

I can't say with any hard numbers really, but while there *are* a lot of illegal grow sites, most of them are not extremely remote. There's a lot of work that goes into an extensive grow site, and they need to be relatively close to some sort of access. If you're off trail even a couple miles from the nearest road I would say you're pretty safe from that sort of activity.

Just a PS: Searches are conducted based on the likely condition of the subject. With grid searches, if there is reason to believe the subject will be unresponsive searchers will tighten up their grid line to increase the probability of detection. Administratively these are all tracked and calculated when the same area is searched multiple times to help distribute resources to cover the greatest amount of ground, and not "waste" time oversearching one particular area. Cumulative POD's are calculated for both 'responsive' and 'unresponsive' scenarios.

[raven]

POD?

[raven]

How often have searches come across illegal operations? Does the frequency differ by area?

It seems to me that if illegal operations, whether growing or other, were a frequent cause of disappearances, searches in the area of disappearances would find the causes, if not the missing persons. If few illegal operations have been found during the searches, we can cross such operations off the list of risks to consider as likely causes for disappearances or personal worry. I assume that would leave mainly accidents, incompetence and going underground as causes of disappearances, with animal and human predation rare.

[Lurch]

POD = Probability of Detection, or the likelihood that you will find your target *if* they were in the area. This is different from the Probability of Area (likelihood they are in your search area to begin with). POD and POA are estimations, based off the teams experience in the field, terrain conditions, previous searches in the same area statistical lost person behavior profiles, and a few other factors. Together (POD x POA) you can find your Probability of Success, ie find the person. If our POD is high, and we're looking in the right area, we're likely to find them.

As for how often SAR teams stumble on drug operations. It is always a present concern in our minds, and there are lots of "horror" stories but very very few that I can actually think of. Other regions may be a different story, and no doubt there are probably things still under investigation that aren't discussed in the community.

Even though animal predators are far down the list in terms of things that will kill you. There are still a high number of scavenger animals, and a deceased hiker can make a decent meal. "Animal Scatter" is pretty common for a subject who has been deceased for awhile. I'll just leave that one at that since this is a family friendly forum and I don't want things to get too morbid.

[Stefrobrts]

Where the article mentioned people lost from the rim of Crater Lake, it reminded me of that little boy who was lost a few years ago when he ran off into the woods to play before his parents could grab him and was never seen again. That one still haunts me to think about.

[raven]

Looking through the 2012 S&R report I discovered a table that reported searches by type. I calculated that the percentage of searches for hikers in the last 5 years were:

2008 -- 34%
2009 -- 33%
2010 -- 29%
2011 -- 29%
2012 -- 36%

A much smaller number of missing hikers than was hinted at, I assume. More consistent with the comment in the original news report:

"More than 30 people have wandered into Lane County's mountains and never returned over the past 40 years, estimates John Miller, search and rescue coordinator for the Lane County Sheriff's Office in Eugene."

I wonder, how do the missing hiker statistics compare to the drive to the trailhead and back for safety?

[Roy]

Not to be crude but animals eat dead flesh and bones for calcium clothing and gear tore up and drug away soon are hidden in the forest.

30 years ago a killer kidnapped young boys and took there body's to a spot east of Mt Hood and made sure they were consumed. He was caught kidnapping and confessed to the others and took the police to the dumping spot. Not a bone or any evidence was retrieved this all occurred over less than two years I believe. His thought was this was better than burial.

Sorry for the gruesome tail but hey I hike with a retired Clark county Detective he was a rookie cop and arrived at the arrest of this creep.

[Roy]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how the percentages for Oregon (8% found dead, 2% never found) compare to other state's lost in the backcountry statistics?

Also, I suppose this might belong in the discussion from a couple weeks ago, about neutral vs. bright colored clothing while hiking. How long does it take you to find the hiker in this photo?

find the hiker.jpg

Credit: https://www.facebook.com/findmattgreene?ref=profile

Now imagine, if this was someone who was immobile or unconscious. It wouldn't be that hard to miss them.

This to me is one of the most valuable things you can do. Just a bright red or yellow shirt will do forget the REI fashion statement when alone and a cheap bright light weight wind breaker large enough to slip over your earth tone Gore-Tex parka.

I soloed stuff in the winter many times wore a red Helly Hanson suit and a bright blue and yellow hat. Talking Hood ,Adams MSH ect and skied those bumps alone to I know stupid but soloing to me in the hills added that edgy feeling I've always seem to crave. Its just more intense knowing you cant make a mistake.

I guess I survived it those days are physically impossible for me now but how I do miss it.