Thanks to everyone who commented on my previous post about the Gorge Fire Management Plan and hiking's future. I'd like to hear some specific comments from hikers on having a public review of the Gorge's fire management plan. Are you in favor of one? Why or why not?
For some background see: http://www.lensjoy.com/Blog/EagleCreekFire.htm
Luck is not a fire management strategy. If the fire had started in the days before September 2, it could have been much larger. Some simplified fire growth modeling indicates this possibility:
Here are some predicted sizes of the fire for other start dates. Conservative parameters cause the size for one starting 9/1 to be low.
Start Date Peak Size (acres)
8/26 1,065,564
8/27 623,247
8/28 487,762
8/29 213,217
8/30 119,094
8/31 72,943
9/1 23,830
And yes, I know we don't have a million acres of fuels on Oregon and Washington sides of the gorge. What the model is predicting is the fire growth potential. A number that big means we would have lost nearly everything that could burn until the fire reached areas where it wouldn't spread further due to lack of fuels.