Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

General discussions on hiking in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest
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VanMarmot
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by VanMarmot » February 2nd, 2018, 3:39 pm

Water wrote:
VanMarmot wrote:During the past six years (2011-17), 40–50 human cases of Lyme disease have been reported in Oregon each year. In 2015, 120 cases of Lyme disease were reported in dogs.
It was my understanding that diagnosed case in Oregon does not necessarily have bearing on where it was contracted. There's a lot of cross country travel. And if you lived in CT or PA for 3 years and moved here 3 years ago and finally got a diagnosis, that counts as an Oregon Diagnosis.

Where's the source on this, 120 cases in dogs in 1 year vs 40-50 over 6 years for humans.. I realize dogs definitely pick up the ticks at a much higher rate, but they also don't travel to hike nearly as much as humans do.. that would seem to indicate a lot more lyme presence in Oregon, at least to me.
I got this from this Oregon Health Autority fact sheet. I don't think the dog/tick contact rate was limited to dogs on hikes but rather includes all dogs wandering around outside, hiking or not. Based on the OHA fact sheet, Lyme Disease is now essentially endemic in Oregon - no need for tourists from CT or PA to bring us any more. ;)
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kepPNW
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by kepPNW » February 3rd, 2018, 6:43 am

VanMarmot wrote:Based on the OHA fact sheet, Lyme Disease is now essentially endemic in Oregon - no need for tourists from CT or PA to bring us any more. ;)
Endemic sounds so, well, so much like pandemic and other overwhelming words. Let's draw a picture...
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VanMarmot
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by VanMarmot » February 3rd, 2018, 10:23 am

kepPNW wrote:
VanMarmot wrote:Based on the OHA fact sheet, Lyme Disease is now essentially endemic in Oregon - no need for tourists from CT or PA to bring us any more. ;)
Endemic sounds so, well, so much like pandemic and other overwhelming words.
Endemic just means its regularly encountered in an area. But Lyme is here and isn't likely to be going away. So "endemic" may not be true for all of Oregon, yet...

I doubt we'll have a "pandemic" of ticks because the little buggers can only crawl around. I suppose if they ever develop wings we're doomed... ;)
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kepPNW
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by kepPNW » February 4th, 2018, 8:58 am

VanMarmot wrote:
kepPNW wrote:
VanMarmot wrote:Based on the OHA fact sheet, Lyme Disease is now essentially endemic in Oregon - no need for tourists from CT or PA to bring us any more. ;)
Endemic sounds so, well, so much like pandemic and other overwhelming words.
Endemic just means its regularly encountered in an area.
Oh sure, I know. Was just playing around there a bit. :)
VanMarmot wrote:But Lyme is here and isn't likely to be going away. So "endemic" may not be true for all of Oregon, yet...
Yeah, it's a real threat, it seems. But it's good to keep it in perspective. Somehow, those folks in the NE and midwest are (mostly) still surviving. ;)
VanMarmot wrote:I doubt we'll have a "pandemic" of ticks because the little buggers can only crawl around. I suppose if they ever develop wings we're doomed... ;)
Study IDs key birds that host Lyme disease bacteria in California

:?
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VanMarmot
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by VanMarmot » February 4th, 2018, 9:09 am

kepPNW wrote:
VanMarmot wrote:I doubt we'll have a "pandemic" of ticks because the little buggers can only crawl around. I suppose if they ever develop wings we're doomed... ;)
Study IDs key birds that host Lyme disease bacteria in California

:?
Yep, we're doomed... ;)
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Micky
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by Micky » February 6th, 2018, 10:59 am

"I got this from this Oregon Health Autority fact sheet."

if numbers within a decimal place or two and rounding errors are facts:

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texasbb
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by texasbb » February 6th, 2018, 6:57 pm

Micky wrote:"if numbers within a decimal place or two and rounding errors are facts:

Image
I'm pretty sure 12 out of 10,345 isn't 1.15%. :?

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adamschneider
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by adamschneider » February 6th, 2018, 7:14 pm

texasbb wrote:I'm pretty sure 12 out of 10,345 isn't 1.15%. :?
Oy. No kidding. If it really was 12 out of 10,345, that'd be 0.116%, or 1 out of 862!

The cited source of that chart is here: https://www.capcvet.org/maps/#2017/all/ ... es/oregon/

So it looks like they probably meant "120 out of 10,345", given that the most recent numbers on that page are 136 out of 13,850. More likely a typo ("12" instead of "120") than bad math.


(But it's still a pretty low number compared to the Northeast.)

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Bosterson
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by Bosterson » February 6th, 2018, 8:26 pm

NB: page 2 of the report lists 120 dog cases in 2015, though nitpicking typos and rounding errors of .0001 is definitely wholesome fun. Do you have any idea how many ticks could bite one hundredth of a percent of a dog?!
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Re: Swale Canyon Lyme Disease warning

Post by klossner » February 13th, 2018, 4:58 pm

retired jerry wrote:If you delay treating, then you can get into this zone where the doctors say you're cured but you still have symptoms. Treating the delayed symptoms is controversial, maybe it's ineffective, maybe you'll get better eventually anyway,...
My mom contracted Lyme from a tick bite on vacation in Hawaii, of all places, in the 1970s. She had the bullseye rash, but west coast doctors weren't yet aware of Lyme. By the time it was diagnosed years later, it was not treatable. She suffered thirty years of increasingly debilitating neurological symptoms, culminating in a stroke that killed her.

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