As this relates to the 2016 snowpack, I thought I'd get us going early! Christmas in July!
They're calling for a "jurassic" El Niño this year!
See:
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 6185103360
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/de ... /enso-blog
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... ed-to-know
http://www.ktvn.com/story/29506246/el-n ... nto-winter
2016 Snow Level Thread
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- Posts: 194
- Joined: June 3rd, 2011, 10:17 am
2016 Snow Level Thread
For the weather geeks in the crowd, there is a lot of info about El Nino Southern Oscillation events at the Climate Prediction Center.
- BurnsideBob
- Posts: 538
- Joined: May 6th, 2014, 3:15 pm
- Location: Mount Angel, Oregon
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
More ENSO info:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
With a link on last page to even more info. This page is updated frequently--the current iteration is dated 27 July 2015.
My son thinks we are in for a good winter, but IIRC, some of the lowest snowfall winters we've had over the past 30 were El Nino winters. The explanation given at the time was that in an El Nino winter, NW Oregon is in the transition zone between enhanced and subnormal precip. It follows, then, that the existence of an El Nino state isn't predictive either way for snowfall in our area.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, "MJO", can have more influence short term on our winter weather. That said, the MJO is least influential during the peak of an El Nino event. A discussion/explanation of the MJO:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2 ... scillation
Personally, I'm hoping for a return to "normal" winter conditions, but a strong El Nino suggests the winter won't be normal at all--at best, warmer and wetter, and, at worst, warmer and dryer, than average.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
With a link on last page to even more info. This page is updated frequently--the current iteration is dated 27 July 2015.
My son thinks we are in for a good winter, but IIRC, some of the lowest snowfall winters we've had over the past 30 were El Nino winters. The explanation given at the time was that in an El Nino winter, NW Oregon is in the transition zone between enhanced and subnormal precip. It follows, then, that the existence of an El Nino state isn't predictive either way for snowfall in our area.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, "MJO", can have more influence short term on our winter weather. That said, the MJO is least influential during the peak of an El Nino event. A discussion/explanation of the MJO:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2 ... scillation
Personally, I'm hoping for a return to "normal" winter conditions, but a strong El Nino suggests the winter won't be normal at all--at best, warmer and wetter, and, at worst, warmer and dryer, than average.
I keep making protein shakes but they always turn out like margaritas.
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
Some relatively low-elevation snow just fell in Montana and Wyoming, but looks to be sandwiched between warm spells.
Also, for those interesting in ENSO, the weatherwest blog is a good source, albeit focused on CA weather.
Also, for those interesting in ENSO, the weatherwest blog is a good source, albeit focused on CA weather.
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
OK it right about time (what a crazy summer, I know)
Snow in the Goat Rocks this afternoon, and about an inch more on Wednesday.
Snow in the Goat Rocks this afternoon, and about an inch more on Wednesday.
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
There was an 1-2 inches on top of St. Helens this morning. Probably more after this afternoon.
- weekend_warrior
- Posts: 222
- Joined: April 15th, 2010, 12:54 pm
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
any first hand updates? probably going to get out on Sunday, snow level looks to be around 4k?
- retired jerry
- Posts: 14424
- Joined: May 28th, 2008, 10:03 pm
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
http://tripcheck.com/Pages/RCmap.asp?cu ... onditions#
trip check shows no snow on highway but snow on ground at government camp 4000 feet
trip check shows no snow on highway but snow on ground at government camp 4000 feet
- retired jerry
- Posts: 14424
- Joined: May 28th, 2008, 10:03 pm
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
and 8 inches roadside snow
Re: 2016 Snow Level Thread
Santiam Pass looks completely free of snow on the Tripcheck camera. The Hoodoo cams look pretty sparse too.weekend_warrior wrote:any first hand updates? probably going to get out on Sunday, snow level looks to be around 4k?