NOAA Photos

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Steve20050
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NOAA Photos

Post by Steve20050 » February 2nd, 2017, 4:41 am

I loved these photos released from a new NOAA weather satellite. I just want to know where I can get one of these setups. ;)

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/no ... il-n711296

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retired jerry
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by retired jerry » February 2nd, 2017, 6:31 am

I heard about this

I wonder if weather reports will be better

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BigBear
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by BigBear » February 2nd, 2017, 12:57 pm

Great pictures of the earth from above.

On weather forecasts getting better, maybe if the "models" are unplugged and they go back to smelling the dirt. For example, today's forecast of freezing rain at 4 pm when the forecasted temperature for 4 pm is 38 degrees. Was there an executive order that changed the freezing point from 32 to 40 that I didn't catch?

As an accountant, it kills me every time I hear something like this: The bus pick-up temperature will be 45 today, with a high of 43 and a low of 38. Rhonda Shelby (KATU) does it so frequently in her current day's forecast I'd swear she thinks the number line is random (eg 1-2-3-12-(16)-43-4,5-1001-6...). It always puts into question which part of the forecast is right and which part hasn't been updated from the previous day.

Anyway, appreciated the photos, and I'll be holding my breath on the weather.

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retired jerry
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by retired jerry » February 2nd, 2017, 2:17 pm

It's always difficult to predict snow or freezing rain in Portland. Balance between water from the west and cold winds from the east through the gorge.

The NOAA forecast said slight chance of snow before 5 PM, then a chance of or likely freezing rain over night. Gone by 10 AM tomorrow. We will see how accurate that is.

If the models have more resolution because of more detailed satellite data, they'll be more accurate. I think they were less accurate before satellites. And there was no map you could click on and get a weather report for that specific point. On the Rogue last week they were right on - two days with a chance of rain (it actually only sprinkled a tiny bit one day) and temperatures a little above freezing.

I think the TV networks will sometimes exaggerate a little to get viewers. Like they do on everything. I don't really blame them though, because ad dollars are slowly shrinking, they're under a lot of pressure to figure out how to survive.

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BigBear
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by BigBear » February 3rd, 2017, 11:03 am

You missed my point, Jerry.

It's not that weather is necessarily difficult to predict, it's that the forecast was blatantly wrong for the 4 o'clock hour.

Water freezes at 32 degrees.

The forecasted temperature when freezing rain was going to occur was 38 degrees.
Freezing rain is water that is chilling when it hits the ground (unlike snow which starts out frozen).

Thus, the forecast of freezing rain when it was 38 degrees was going to be wrong. The question wasn't when the precipitation was going to start, but how could it freeze at such a high temperature.

The model is spitting out data which contradicts itself, and the forecasters don't seen to understand that when they go on air.

Steve20050
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by Steve20050 » February 3rd, 2017, 1:08 pm

I wondered about todays prediction as well. The internet (NBC) had off and on freezing rain wee hours Friday ending by mid afternoon as it warmed up. I am up late and saw the temps and agree it didn't seem like it was going to be an issue everywhere as temps were too high. I saw reports that higher locations did get some freezing rain.

Over the years I have seen some weather(persons) with pretty good ability to predict PDX weather and some not so good all using the same data. I have always heard Portland is difficult to predict as 3 different variables occur. Where's our weather expert? :) East wind cold artic air mass. Systems more or less following the Alaska coast and the Japanese current, and the Pineapple express from the south west. The major problem seems they have a hard time telling when it will happen more than what will happen.

I'm just glad we didn't get another freezing rain episode here in the Portland metro.

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retired jerry
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by retired jerry » February 3rd, 2017, 1:12 pm

ahh... I see your point

they do the prediction ahead of time when they don't know what the temperature will be

maybe it's too bad there isn't some way to update the report in more real time. I don't know how often it gets updated. It is funny when they say on the TV something but I can see out the window it's not right.

The LovedOne insisted on going out some place. I kept saying "this is a bad idea, it's supposed to start freezing rain". But since it was 38 F and we were only out for a couple hours I reluctantly agreed. And they said the amount of precip would be small. It sleeted some, but the roads didn't get slippery until over night.

In the morning everything was iced over. I saw photos of cars crashing into each other on "the Terwilliger curves"

Aimless
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by Aimless » February 3rd, 2017, 5:19 pm

At my house in Lake Oswego we had a modest amount of freezing rain overnight. With the thermometer on the side of our house registering 33 or 34 degrees mid-morning and a light rain falling, the icicles on the leaves of the bushes near the house appeared to be lengthening even when the roads seemed to be wet rather than icy. iow, trying to figure out freezing rain events in the metro area is enough to drive a person batty.

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Guy
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by Guy » February 5th, 2017, 5:59 pm

BigBear wrote:Great pictures of the earth from above.

On weather forecasts getting better, maybe if the "models" are unplugged and they go back to smelling the dirt. For example, today's forecast of freezing rain at 4 pm when the forecasted temperature for 4 pm is 38 degrees. Was there an executive order that changed the freezing point from 32 to 40 that I didn't catch?
Agree 100% you will never have freezing rain at 38 degrees. Between 31 & 33 there is a very difficult fudge factor. At our home between Gresham & Sandy we have now suffered through 4 ice storms this winter. The first which was never really forecast on 12/09 was by far the worst. Despite the fact that the temp was between 32.5 and 33.5 all night we had significant buildup of ice 20 to 30' off the ground in the trees that caused us significant damage.

In the last two freezing rains events the temps has remained between 31 & 32 but we had virtually no ice buildup in the trees. During freezing rain events I only rest easy when it's above 34!
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sgyoung
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Re: NOAA Photos

Post by sgyoung » February 6th, 2017, 9:34 am

I'm not at all en expert, but I believe the temperature at ground level is only so important for determined whether precipitation falls as rain, sleet, snow, etc. The various layers of air temperature above are important too (e.g., if cold air extends down close to ground level rain may stay frozen long enough to fall as ice) and things like evaporative cooling can keep rain/snow frozen for a little while (if it's not very humid) even if air temperature is above 32.

At least I think that's the case. The links below seem generally consistent with lay-person's understanding of the weather. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here.

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowAboveFreezing

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/452/

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